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2005 EMMY PREDICTIONS
September 16, 2005
Since I hope to keep this job and continue writing for you fine people for some time to come, I may not be wise to admit this - last year, I only accurately predicted three winners out of the 10 major Emmy categories. That wouldn't be too bad if I was the Braves' clean-up hitter, but as a TV prognosticator, it's pretty darn awful.
So, this year, I'm feeling the pressure to perform better, which is tough because Emmy voters did something wholly unexpected this year - they actually nominated some actors and shows that actually deserve it! Thus, I offer up the annual Who Should Win/Who Will Win Emmy column and shuffle off to a corner to nervously await the Sunday results. The envelope please…
Outstanding Drama Series -- the nominees, "Deadwood," "Lost," "Six Feet Under," "24" and "The West Wing."
Should Win: Don't get me wrong. "Lost" and "24" are awesome, you-can-never-afford-to-miss television shows. Seriously, I lost power during an episode of "24" last season and ended up in bed, in the fetal position, crying softly. And "Six Feet Under" performed one of the greatest comebacks in TV history when, after a subpar season three, a rotten season four, and an early batch of weak fifth-season episodes, HBO's funeral home drama put together a string of brilliant episodes at the end of its run, solidifying its place in the TV pantheon. Yet despite all that, none can compare to "Deadwood," HBO's gritty western masterpiece, which didn't quite reach season one heights in its sophomore frame, but still soared above anything else TV has to offer.
Will Win: "Lost." It was THE water-cooler show this year, a brilliant but dark fantasy stacked with teasing riddles and filled with wonderful characters. Despite some valid complaining that the writers dangled too many loose threads, this was still the network show most loved by critics and couch potatoes last season.
Outstanding Comedy Series -- "Arrested Development," "Desperate Housewives," "Everybody Loves Raymond," "Scrubs" and "Will & Grace."
Should Win: The two best comedies on network TV last year were "Scrubs" and "Arrested Development." Honestly, I couldn't pick which is funnier, but while "Scrubs" will often go with a broad, easy joke, "Arrested Development" more often keeps its comedic knife razor sharp and slightly subversive. That wicked edge earns my support.
Will Win: I'm not sure how the ever-coasting "Will & Grace" is even still nominated for this award. And while "Everybody Loves Raymond" was an Emmy powerhouse in its day, I don't see it winning a lot of lifetime-achievement-type honors for its final season. That leaves three. One could argue that "Desperate Housewives," with its murder mysteries and suburban paranoia, is incorrectly categorized as a comedy, but like "Lost," the public loves it too much to ignore. I'm figuring a sweep for ABC in the big two categories.
Outstanding Lead Actor, Drama -- James Spader, "The Practice;" Hank Azaria, "Huff;" Kiefer Sutherland, "24;" Ian McShane, "Deadwood" and Hugh Laurie, "House."
Should Win: Ian McShane, who continues to give the small screen's best performance in…in…well, in forever. McShane's devious saloon owner was even more magnificent in season two as he fought a rather horrific bout with kidney stones and waxed poetic to the severed head of a dead Indian chief.
Will Win: There's only two that can realistically win, McShane and Laurie, and, boy, oh, boy, is it going to be close. Emmy voters still must feel ashamed that McShane wasn't even nominated last year, and that's going to translate into some votes. But while McShane is "Deadwood"'s shining star, there remains a plethora of great performances that surround him. On "House," Hugh Laurie IS the show. He's fantastic. He's wonderful. He's the only reason to watch. Expect all that glorious grouching to earn Laurie a trip to the podium.
Outstanding Lead Actress, Drama -- Jennifer Garner, "Alias;" Glenn Close, "The Shield;" Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit;" Francis Conroy, "Six Feet Under" and Patricia Arquette, "Medium."
Should Win: Even though my jaw remains on the floor from seeing Patricia Arquette somehow receive an acting nomination, the other four ladies are solid across the board. Conroy is great, but the "Six" writers never gave her character enough places to go. (90 percent of her screen time was always devoted to whining.) I'll throw my support behind Glenn Close, an actress I never much cared for. I was sure adding her to the cast of FX's brilliant cop drama was going to be a bad move. Boy, was I wrong. She gave an acting clinic this year as the new precinct captain.
Will Win: Last year, I predicted Joe Pantoliano would win for Outstanding Supporting actor because Emmy voters love it when big movie actors tackle a meaty TV role. He lost. It won't stop me from doing the same thing again though. Close will hear her name called.
Outstanding Lead Actor, Comedy -- Jason Bateman, "Arrested Development;" Ray Romano, "Everybody Loves Raymond;" Zach Braff, "Scrubs;" Eric McCormack, "Will & Grace" and Tony Shalhoub, "Monk."
Should Win: Just as it's tough to pick between the two shows for best comedy, it's equally hard to choose between Bateman and Braff. Bateman is certainly funny but often plays the straight man on "Arrested." Braff, however, always brings the funny to "Scrubs." Plus, I'm unfairly giving him bonus points for writing and directing "Garden State," 2004's best theatrical movie.
Will Win: Tony Shalhoub won two years ago, and I can see him coming out on top again. Shalhoub is a journeyman TV comic still earning raves with his most popular creation, ultra-phobic detective Adrian Monk. The Academy won't feel bad at all for honoring him a second time.
Outstanding Lead Actress, Comedy -- Patricia Heaton, "Everybody Loves Raymond;" Jane Kaczmarek, "Malcolm in the Middle;" Teri Hatcher, "Desperate Housewives;" Marcia Cross, "Desperate Housewives" and Felicity Huffman, "Desperate Housewives."
Should Win: Teri Hatcher, because she's note perfect on "Desperate Housewives," even when I think the rest of the show is drastically overrated.
Will Win: One of the "Housewives," for certain. Cross has been hammered by the press because of a rumored diva attitude, while Huffman is always the housewife pushed to the bottom corner of magazine covers. So Emmy voters will happily write the final chapter in the comeback tale of Teri Hatcher, magically returned from whatever black hole she fell into after "Lois & Clark."
Outstanding Supporting Actor, Drama -- William Shatner, "Boston Legal;" Oliver Platt, "Huff;" Naveen Andrews, "Lost;" Alan Alda, "The West Wing" and Terry O'Quinn, "Lost."
Should Win: Anthony Anderson, for his riveting turn as an inner-city drug kingpin on "The Shield." Except Emmy voters ridiculously overlooked him. D'oh! Since I can't pick Anderson, I'll go with Terry O'Quinn. Without his John Locke, "Lost" is only half as much fun.
Will Win: I'm a big Oliver Platt fan, but I don't think anyone's even seen "Huff," a little-watched Showtime drama. Shatner's too hammy. Alda's on a show past its prime. Between Andrews and O'Quinn, I figure the Academy will agree with me and pick O'Quinn, who can range from super creepy to amusingly wry.
Outstanding Supporting Actress, Drama -- Sandra Oh, "Grey's Anatomy;" Blythe Danner, "Huff;" Tyne Daly, "Judging Amy;" CCH Pounder, "The Shield" and Stockard Channing, "The West Wing."
Should Win: This should be an interesting category because Stockard Channing is the only returning nominee from last year. My vote goes to the fiery CCH Pounder, so powerful amongst a slew of strong performers on "The Shield."
Will Win: Despite the public not knowing what the heck "Huff" is, Emmy voters must, since they awarded it with seven nominations. Giving this one award to Blythe Danner would be a nice way to hint that Showtime is starting to gain ground on HBO in the original programming department. A tough category to call, though.
Outstanding Supporting Actor, Comedy -- Jeffrey Tambor, "Arrested Development;" Peter Boyle, "Everybody Loves Raymond;" Brad Garrett, "Everybody Loves Raymond;" Jeremy Piven, "Entourage" and Sean Hayes, "Will & Grace."
Should Win: A win for Jeremy Piven and TV lovers everywhere will be "hugging it out." The guy mines comic gold on HBO's Hollywood comedy week after week after week.
Will Win: Jeffrey Tambor - the "Larry Sanders" alum is hilarious in not just one, but two roles (Bluth family patriarch George Bluth and his twin brother Oscar) in Fox's criminally under-watched "Arrested Development." He's almost as funny as Piven, but a teensy bit more of a mainstream choice for the Academy, which already honored "Arrested" as best comedy series last year.
Outstanding Supporting Actress, Comedy -- Doris Roberts, "Everybody Loves Raymond;" Jessica Walter, "Arrested Development;" Holland Taylor, "Two and a Half Men;" Conchata Ferrell, "Two and a Half Men" and Megan Mullally, "Will & Grace."
Should Win: An up-for-grabs category now that "Sex and the City" is retired. The nominee that makes me laugh the most, by far, is "Arrested"'s Jessica Walter, who earns huge guffaws every week as fallen socialite Lucille Bluth.
Will Win: It won't be the "Two and Half Men" girls because that show's real focus is right there in the title. Roberts can't possibly win again, can she? And Mullally is old news. Walter, like her TV husband, should emerge victorious.
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