2006 EMMY PREDICTIONS

August 25, 2006

I've already complained plenty about the lackluster Emmy nominees this year. And I had a good laugh earlier this month when it was revealed that Ellen Burstyn was nominated for a supporting actress Emmy for a performance that was 38 words long and lasted all of 14 seconds. So, yeah, the Emmys continue to bleed out credibility. But that doesn't mean I should give up writing my annual Who Should Win/Who Will Win column. If the Academy of Television's show will go on (and it does this Sunday on NBC), then so shall mine. The envelope, please…

Outstanding Drama Series--the nominees, "Grey's Anatomy," "House," "The Sopranos," "24" and "The West Wing."

Should Win: "24" because it had its best season ever while "The Sopranos" had its worst. "House" is a great show, but when you tune in to watch, you know exactly what you're going to get. Its format doesn't allow for surprises on a weekly basis. Also, am I the only one thankful that the once great but now mercifully finished "West Wing" can't get nominated again next year?

Will Win: "Grey's Anatomy." Although I've never taken to it, people love this show - audiences and critics alike. As a melodramatic hospital drama filled with great love affairs and tenseful emergency room chaos, it seems more weighty than Jack Bauer's save-the-world antics on "24" (even though it really isn't).

Outstanding Comedy Series--"Arrested Development," "Curb Your Enthusiasm," "The Office," "Scrubs" and "Two and a Half Men."

Should Win: "Scrubs," which got even zanier - and better - in its fifth season. I could list a million reasons why, but instead I'll choose just one - Turk rocking out to Boston's "More Than a Feeling" with the Sacred Heart Air Band. A close second would be "The Office," which keeps getting better and better.

Will Win: Probably not "Arrested," which won in 2004, as it already seems like old news now that it's gone. "Two and a Half Men" is nothing more than a competent old-fashioned sitcom. "The Office" however is gaining steam critically and has a movie star in its lead role with Steve Carell. The TV Academy loves movie stars.

Outstanding Lead Actor, Drama--Christopher Meloni, "Law & Order: SVU;" Denis Leary, "Rescue Me;" Kiefer Sutherland, "24;" Peter Krause, "Six Feet Under" and Martin Sheen, "The West Wing."

Should Win: Hugh Laurie wasn't nominated for some unfathomable reason, so I'm forced to chose someone else. "Six Feet Under" was great in its last season, but all the truly magnificent stuff came after Krause's character kicked the bucket. Let's hope Kiefer can finally win for bringing so much passion, intensity and emotion to a character surrounded by explosions, terrorists and plot holes.

Will Win: Even though the show itself remains drastically overrated, Denis Leary's performance as tortured soul/loudmouth firefighter Tommy Gavin on "Rescue Me" is admittedly something worth seeing. And Emmy voters are partial to actors on FX series, as illustrated by Michael Chiklis' win for his work on "The Shield" a few years back.

Outstanding Lead Actress, Drama--Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer;" Geena Davis, "Commander in Chief;" Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit;" Frances Conroy, "Six Feet Under" and Allison Janney, "The West Wing."

Should Win: Somebody should be awarded for "Six Feet Under" ending on such a high note, so I'll pick Frances Conroy, who was as good as ever this year.

Will Win: The emotionless Patricia Arquette somehow won this award last year for "Medium," so God only knows what Emmy voters will do this year. Something tells me they may choose Kyra Sedgwick to further embrace the excellent work being done on cable these days.

Outstanding Lead Actor, Comedy--Larry David, "Curb Your Enthusiasm;" Kevin James, "The King of Queens;" Tony Shalhoub, "Monk;" Steve Carell, "The Office" and Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men."

Should Win: Steve Carell did something great this year. He took what started as a one-dimensional character -- the idiot boss -- and made him someone you can understand, someone you can care about. (He just wants someone to love him!) It's sly yet stellar work.

Will Win: Either Shalhoub or Carell. But Tony's already won this thing twice, so I'm guessing Carell takes home the trophy. (Plus, remember, he's a movie star now.)

Outstanding Lead Actress, Comedy--Lisa Kudrow, "The Comeback;" Jane Kaczmarek, "Malcolm in the Middle;" Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "The New Adventures of Old Christine;" Stockard Channing, "Out of Practice" and Debra Messing, "Will & Grace."

Should Win: For the first time ever, I honestly can't get behind any of the nominees. Didn't like Kudrow on "The Comeback." The freshness of Kaczmarek's role has long since expired. Messing's character was never interesting to begin with. The girl who was once Elaine didn't wow me on "Old Christine" the couple of times I watched. And I must admit - I've never seen "Out of Practice." So, honestly, who ends up winning doesn't matter to me at all. Actually, Mary-Louise Parker should have been nominated and won for her brilliant work on Showtime's "Weeds."

Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus because she's the first "Seinfeld" actor to star in a new series that wasn't a complete disaster. The Academy will be keen to recognize that little feat.

Outstanding Supporting Actor, Drama--William Shatner, "Boston Legal;" Oliver Platt, "Huff;" Michael Imperioli, "The Sopranos;" Gregory Itzin, "24" and Alan Alda, "The West Wing."

Should Win: Gregory Itzin by a mile because he essentially played two characters this season and played them both well. Halfway through the year, "24"'s writers decided that President Logan's weak-willed persona was only a ruse and that Logan was actually a ruthless power-monger not above committing crimes of treason. I don't know quite how, but Itzin actually made the whole thing seem quite believable.

Will Win: With "Lost"'s wonderful supporting cast all left out in the cold, there really should be no other choice but Itzin.

Outstanding Supporting Actress, Drama--Candice Bergen, "Boston Legal;" Sandra Oh, "Grey's Anatomy;" Chandra Wilson, "Grey's Anatomy;" Blythe Danner, "Huff" and Jean Smart, "24"

Should Win: Itzin ruled, but holding her own with him all the way was Jean Smart as "24"'s depressed, drugged, and paranoid (or is she?) First Lady. The two really should be the king and queen of the Emmys this year.

Will Win: I think "Grey's" soaring popularity will carry Sandra Oh to victory. She was nominated last year and is a favorite among the large cast.

Outstanding Supporting Actor, Comedy--Will Arnett, "Arrested Development;" Jeremy Piven, "Entourage;" Bryan Cranston, "Malcolm in the Middle;" Jon Cryer, "Two and a Half Men" and Sean Hayes, "Will & Grace."

Should Win: I'll be happy if Piven's name is called. He continues to smoke through a role seemingly tailor-made for him on "Entourage." But I'd more enjoy seeing Will Arnett honored for giving us three seasons of joy as Gob on "Arrested." Watching him persistently try to find his way out from brother Michael's shadow - usually via some loony magic act never fully thought through - always entertained.

Will Win: Jeremy Piven because "Entourage" just now seems to be hitting its creative peak and Piven is a huge reason why.

Outstanding Supporting Actress, Comedy--Cheryl Hines, "Curb Your Enthusiasm;" Alfre Woodard, "Desperate Housewives;" Jaime Pressly, "My Name is Earl;" Elizabeth Perkins, "Weeds" and Megan Mullally, "Will & Grace."

Should Win: Whereas I could care less about the Lead Actress in a Comedy category, we've got three nominees in the Supporting Actress category that I would be thrilled to see win. Hines' slow burns over husband Larry's antics are classic, and Perkins kicks butt as a take-no-prisoners suburban mother diagnosed with cancer. But as good as the rest of "My Name is Earl"'s cast is, that show wouldn't be half as enjoyable without the riotous redneck antics of Jaime Pressly. Who would ever have guessed the men's mag pinup girl could be so darn hilarious.

Will Win: Mullally remained the "Will & Grace" quartet's funniest member until the end and Perkins could earn some votes for handling her character's dramatic load along with all the funny stuff, but Pressly is just too surprisingly great to be ignored.