BUBBLE SHOWS MAKE THEIR CASE

May 5, 2006

It's two weeks until network upfronts begin, the annual industry presentations where new fall lineups are presented. That means between now and then we're going to learn the fates of those shows that hover perilously between renewal and cancellation. The list of bubble shows, as they're called, is lengthy this year, so, more than likely, there's a show you love in danger of getting the axe. Here are a few series worth keeping an eye on when final decisions are made:

"Veronica Mars." The primary reason more shows are on the fence this year than usual is because we're about to go from having six major networks to only having five, as shows from both UPN and the WB will be funneled into the new CW network. So it's simple math: More shows hoping for a spot; less spots to give out. The sophomore season of critical darling "Veronica Mars" wasn't quite as strong as its first year (thanks to too many plot threads which left the show with a decided lack of focus), but it's still one of TV's smartest and most creative hours and deserves a third season. The problem is that the UPN whodunit continued to draw anemic ratings this year, pulling in a little over two million passionate fans weekly without enticing anyone else to check it out, even when it had a good lead-in show on Wednesdays with the much more popular "America's Next Top Model." The CW has a tough decision here. The show still produces much water-cooler talk on the Internet, so let's hope the cultish buzz is enough to earn another season.

"Everwood" and "One Tree Hill." These two WB family dramas find themselves in the same situation as "Veronica," except with more casual viewers but less fanatics. "Everwood" never really hooked me into watching full time, but I've seen it sporadically this year, and it easily qualifies as worthwhile television. It has an accomplished cast and a clear sense of the type of show it wants to be. "One Tree Hill," however, veers in quality from passable to laughably bad and isn't afraid to pile on the soap-opera theatrics. "One Tree Hill" skews younger, so it may be more appealing demographically to the CW. But if only one can stay, hopefully it's "Everwood."

"Invasion." Three new science-fiction series debuted last fall to heavy promotion - CBS' "Threshold," NBC's "Surface," and ABC's "Invasion." Eight months later, only "Invasion" still stands, although barely. Many theorized that ratings weren't up to snuff because people just weren't up for another hour of brain-taxing riddles after just watching "Lost." Hey, it's as good a theory as any. Moving "Invasion" to a different night next year might result in more people giving it a try, especially since there should be less new sci-fi to sample.

"Commander in Chief." The Geena Davis presidential drama is most likely gone, especially since ABC just announced that it is pulling all remaining season-one episodes from the schedule for the time being. But it deserves a note here because of the astounding free fall this show's endured since last September when it debuted with the highest ratings of any new series. Since then not one, but two show runners have left and/or were forced off the series (first Rod Lurie, and then his replacement, Steven Bochco). Characters came and went, the tone shifted wildly, the show was scheduled erratically, and in the end, all ABC was left with was an Oval Office-sized mess.

"Scrubs." Thankfully, here's one show that's almost positive to return despite lower-than-what-NBC-would-like ratings. ABC execs have already declared their intention to pick up the wonderfully wacky hospital comedy next season if NBC decides to cut it loose. That means it's less likely NBC will cancel "Scrubs," since they don't want to see the well-respected show take its loyal fans to another network. I feel like I've written this 12 times already, but I'll say it again - Hey, NBC! Move "Scrubs" to Thursdays where its comedic sensibilities would match up perfectly with "My Name is Earl" and "The Office." It's honestly a no-brainer.